Fritz Pfister

The Capital Area Association of Realtors (CAAR) reports closed sales activity is on record pace, and could see a new record for closed home sales for an eighth consecutive year. For most consumers that’s good news. For others it’s not so good. Yes it’s great that a record number of homes have sold, and no it’s not great if your home has not yet sold and you know a record number of buyers have already purchased.

As CAAR begins the fourth quarter of ‘05 it will do so with the largest inventory of homes for sale on record, 1646 as of 9-28-05. That’s a 17% increase over the preceding year. The result of the record inventory of homes for sale, listings that are not selling continue to increase. Expired listings, those that did not sell during their listing contract, are up 22% YTD, and withdrawn listings are up an incredible 33%. That’s nearly 2000 home sellers that failed to sell in what will be the best year on record for getting sold, and we have an entire quarter ahead.

Most home sellers are impervious to the changing market, as are most agents, and will not succeed without this basic information. Many agents are going to be disappointed to discover that only 1 in 3 home listings will sell the final quarter of ‘05. Yes the final quarter will wrap up another record year for home sales, however thousands will have failed in their selling attempt in ‘05.

How can this be? Most consumers believe real estate agents are interchangeable, hiring one is the same as hiring any one of them. After all, they do the same job. Wrong. Consider this if you will be selling a home, 10% of the agents are involved in over 90% of the sales according to Howard Brinton founder of Star Power, and one of North America’s leading industry educators.

Here is my forecast for the greater Springfield real estate markets fourth quarter. Another 1000 or more homes will be listed for sale adding to the over supply of 1646 homes currently for sale. Between 750 and 800 home listings will close, and about 120 will be sold pending as the year ends. Another 900+ home listings will expire or withdraw, and CAAR will begin 2006 with a record number of homes listed for sale.

To get a handle on where the real estate market is headed you should look to the past. Harry Truman said it best, “There’s no such thing as the future, only history that hasn’t happened yet.”.
What started the housing boom? When did it start? What will sustain a housing boom?
In my opinion the housing boom [...]

The real estate year is starting its last hurrah for 2005. In Lincoln’s hometown the Capital Area Association of Realtors MLS reports the 5 year average for home sales closed in the 4th quarter is 731 homes. The record 4th quarter was 814 closed home sales in 2003.
This presents a challenge to all families that [...]