Fritz Pfister

On one hand after suffering through the weakest home sales market last year since 1998, local Realtors and home sellers are relieved at the pace of sales to start 2012. Then on the other hand closer scrutiny tells a different story.

The following data comes from The Capital Area Association of Realtors MLS as reported by member brokers. Brokers have through the end of today to report closed sales.

March 2012 compared to March 2011: New listings 524, up 2; closed home sales 261 up 16, homes going under contract 436 up 68, median sale price $118,000 up $26,000, cumulative days on market to contract for sold listings 125 days up 8 days.

On the other hand compared to the five year average for March 2007 through 2011 closed home sales down by 29, and home listings going under contract down 2. What does this mean? Although it took a harried pace of activity we ended up below average.

Q1, 2012 compared to Q1, 2011: new listings 1216 up 67; closed home sales 621 up 32; home listings going under contract 1051 up 190; median sale price $113,000 up $15,000; cumulative days on market to contract for closed listings 121 up 9 days.

On the other hand Q1, 2012 compared to the average for first quarters 2007 through 2011: closed home sales down 65, home listings going under contract up 3.

Two significant numbers jump out of this sales report. It is great to see the median sale price up significantly in the first quarter by $15,000, on the other hand the price is up compared to a year with a harsh winter where mostly investors feared to tread. If you believe prices are up, ask an appraiser.

The other number is the anomaly we spoke of last week, although the number of homes going under contract surged in the first quarter by 190, those contracts only translated into 32 additional sales. On the other hand, although closed sales were up over last year’s first quarter, home sales were the second fewest to start a year dating back to 1999.

The good news is there are 504 home listings reported sale pending up 100 over last year on this date, on the other hand 105 of those are sold pending continue to show. On one hand these may be cautious sellers who want there home available for showings in case the contract in place fails, in spite of the fact that these homes seldom get showings if any.

On the other hand these listings under contract remaining available for showings could be due to agents taking advantage of the system in an attempt to generate buyer leads. They remain available for viewing on the associations public website. Here’s how that goes; thanks for calling, that home is under contract, can I show you other homes that are available?

No question the rush of sales contracts are due to pent up demand, it certainly doesn’t appear a wave of new jobs being created is responsible. This past week we had a slowdown in the torrid pace of sales, coming off the best week in two years with 121, sales slowed to 91 this week.

Could this be the begining to the end of pent up demand driving the market? We’ll just have to wait and see. Interest rates continue at record lows, and the inventory of homes for sale is more than adequate. The next several weeks will tell the tale.

The same for jobs. On the one hand then again on the other hand. The number of initial claims for unemployment are running at a four year low which usually indicates strong job growth, but on the other hand that hasn’t happened. The 120,000 jobs added in March aren’t enough to keep up with new job entrants let alone dent the 12.8 million out of jobs.

It is good news that over 800,000 jobs have been added over the past four months, the best four month run since 2007, but on the other hand we need to average 300,000 a month for 36 straight months to get unemployment under 7%.

It was good news the official unemployment rate for March declined to 8.2%, but on the other hand it wasn’t due to people finding jobs it was due to people falling out of the labor force and giving up looking for jobs. When calculating those no longer actively looking for jobs, the unemployment rate would be 10.9%.

You’re beginning to hear and see media reports that $4 gas doesn’t seem to bother consumers, and they are out spending. Everybody who doesn’t care that gas is over $4 a gallon, in my humble opinion, are outnumbered by those who do care.

The same goes for the environmental movement coming out in support of the EPA’s new CO2 emission standards on cars and industry. Why even our own Senator Durbin said these severe storms are becoming more costly, and interrupts commerce and agriculture.

On the other hand to say this on Easter week, means someone should inform our senator that severe weather has been around longer than the EPA, manipulated scientific theories, and there just might be a higher power in charge. He can ask Noah.

I’m just guessing but I don’t think people will like, or the economy be helped when industries, and homes have their electric rates skyrocket, price of products increase, price of cars go up, and the price of gas and food continue to go higher.

The bottom line it is not surprising there isn’t a real recovery occurring with an extremist environmental agenda dictating to the private sector and families, an Obamacare law that has employers reluctant to hire, a Leviathan finance law delaying and preventing home sales, and making them more expensive.

As the jobs market goes, so goes the housing market. With the current policies in place, and the refusal to change course, how can there be any measurable improvement? This is the best housing market you will have for the foreseeable future.

In the big scheme of things we’ll get through this because there is an election in November, more importantly tomorrow we celebrate the Risen Lord. The promise of Easter is upon us. May you have a blessed Easter holiday and rejoice in the gift of Christ.

The opinions expressed here are solely those of Fritz Pfister or identified sources, and not necessarily those of RE/MAX Professionals of Springfield or RE/MAX International.

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