The slowdown continues with August closed home sales with two business days remaining with a mere 189 closed, barely more than half of August 2009’s 370. The month will probably finish down 30% to 35% from last year. The 304 sales pending so far in August is a marked improvement, yet still quite a ways from the 445 sales pending posted in August of 2009. Expect sales pending to be down 20% to 25% by months end. This means September closed sales will be down.

This means we have evolved into a new norm. Due to the economy, market cycles have been obliterated. How can this be said? The slowdown in sales has occurred when interest rates have dropped to the lowest levels in our lifetimes. Historically that would mean home buyer activity comparable to a shark feeding frenzy. This time the reaction is like the turnout for a Tiny Tim concert at the convention center.

The reason is jobs and consumer confidence. The Springfield area has lost 1400 jobs the preceding twelve months, and it is forecast that an additional 1400 jobs will be lost in the next twelve months. Those that have jobs are scared they may be next to lose theirs, their confidence is at near record lows, and are refinancing in lieu of selling and buying.

The economic policies of the Obama administration are to blame. When the president stated he wanted to fundamentally transform America, nobody was sure what he meant. Now we know. The massive pieces of legislation in health care reform, and financial regulatory reform are, and will prove to not accomplish their stated purposes, and at a cost that will drive the country closer to insolvency.

People sense this and have changed their habits as a result. Disposable income expenditures, those that are not necessary, have been cut. The savings rate has doubled since the downturn in 2008, and credit card debt has fallen to an eight year low. With the value of everyone’s home suspect people are no longer using perceived equity in their homes as a piggy bank that could be paid back with rising home prices. This means consumers aren’t spending which accounts for 70% of economic activity.

Confidence is down in part due to the abject failure of the Stimulus bill that was to have created 3.5 million jobs by the end of 2010, and was to keep unemployment below 8%. The Stimulus resulted in the creation of 400,000 government jobs to be paid for by a private sector with nearly 3 million fewer (jobs) taxpayers since the Stimulus was passed.

If the administration was this wrong about the Stimulus, it is logical they are wrong about health care savings as families watch health insurance premiums skyrocket, and 100,000 pages of rules being written that will have government bureaucrats involved in every aspect of their health care system, costs, and decisions. Not a big confidence builder for the folks.

The GDP has shrunk two quarters in a row, unemployment is getting worse which signals there is no recovery underway and we are likely headed for another recession. I don’t believe we ever recovered from the initial downturn with 15 million people out of work. Maybe technically we recovered but only Wall Street and major banks have benefited from Obama policies, not the middle class or main street.

The national economy will not improve as those without private sector experience continue down the path of wealth redistribution, higher taxes, bigger deficits, and more spending. Businesses are not going to hire until the costs of this fundamental transformation is known. Obamacare and FinReg are , and will prove to have devastating economic consequences and both should be repealed, however they are here and it will take a long time to undo the damage. The third shoe in the transformative process is Cap and Trade. Should this industry, and jobs killing legislation pass in a lame duck session, then depression becomes a reality.

The state of Illinois is even in worse shape than the federal government. Why? They can’t print money. With the stumbling, bumbling Quinn administration and campaign flip flopping like someone who doesn’t know what to do, or what they are doing, Brady will probably win the election.

That might not be such a prize if Democrats retain control of the legislature and stymies real spending and tax reform. The mandates of the Obama legislation is going to be catastrophic upon the states, and Illinois especially. If Illinois were the person who fell overboard, the Obama administration is throwing them an anvil and not a life jacket. By 2014 over 1.3 million additional people will be forced onto Medicaid by Obamacare, costing Illinois an additional $1.6 billion after the feds pay 50% of the increase for a temporary time period.

The bottom line is our federal and state governments are making the situation worse. The saying the hurrieder I go, the behinder I get comes to mind. Until there are people running these governments that understand sound economic principles, backed by a legislature with the cajones to implement the necessary actions, our economy will continue to suffer.

In my opinion this means the Springfield Illinois housing market will remain in this government driven evolved market for years to come. A shrinking economy, double digit unemployment, low consumer confidence, small bussinesses beseiged by over regulation and taxation will be the result of liberal economic policy. It will take years to reverse the damage.

Liberals say it was George Bushes fault and his economy was worse as a result of tax cuts. That belies the truth that there were 52 consecutive months of job growth with unemployment at or below 5% for five consecutive years. The financial system collapsed, once again due to government legislative social engineering resulting from the CRA abused by HUD, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac. But that is an argument for another day.

Be prepared to work twice as hard for half as much. The American entrepreneur, worker, and small business owner will survive and be the one’s who ultimately lead America back to prosperity. That however will only happen with a change in leadership in both the federal and state governments. Pray this begins in November or your children’s future is being written today.

The opinions expressed here are solely those of Fritz Pfister, or identified sources,  and not necessarily those of RE/MAX Professionals of Springfield, or RE/MAX International.

Wednesday I had the privilege to drive to Ohio for my parents 65th wedding anniversary on Thursday. While in Ohio the report was released that new home sales fell 12% in July from June to the lowest on record, but what wasn’t widely reported was that July new home sales were down 32% from July of 2009. There was one building permit issued in Springfield.

New home construction is simply in a depression across the country. Do you remember the SJR going gaga about building permits in April? Funny how government actions will cause reactions in the private sector. Those April permits were the local builders last chance to get grandfathered before having to follow the EPA mandated green building requirements, because Illinois had accepted stimulus money. It will cost builders about $20,000 more to build a home under the new mandates. That can be absorbed by many families with interest rates at today’s levels, but what happens when rates go up. New home sales will suffer.

Here’s the number of single family building permits issued by the city 19 in April, 9 in May, 5 in June, 1 in July. At last report about a dozen in August. Do you see a trend? We may have doubled the number of permits compared to the first half of 2009, but let’s see where we finish the year. We had between 300 and 400 permits issued annually during the boom, now we are struggling to get 100. Still better than the national average which is down 70% from the highs.

Did the tax credits really add more buyers to the market? Many say yes by simply looking at the record number of home sales in the spring. I say no, all the tax credit did was change people’s buying habits. In spite of interest rates falling only 233 home sales closed in July and with two business days remaining in August local Realtors had reported 189 closed home sales through the end of business on the 27th. There were 370 closed in August last year. We’re barely past half of last years sales.

The inconsistency in sales activity continued this week. Two weeks ago Realtors reported 91 listings sold pending, that fell back again this week to only 63. I believe we are still looking at a bump in activity for several weeks following Labor Day. This may be many home sellers last chance to get sold before next year.

In other economic news Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke yesterday saying;  “the economic outlook remains unusually uncertain.” He also stated: “I expect the economy to continue to expand in the second half of this year, albeit at a relatively modest pace,” That slow pace, he added, means that “the prospect of high unemployment for a long period of time remains a central concern of [Fed] policy.”

Bernanke’s speech followed the report that the economy grew at only a 1.6% annual rate in the second quarter adjusted from 3.4%. That isn’t good news and makes sense when seeing the jobless numbers following in now this third quarter. The weekly initial claims for unemployment fell to 473,000 last week but the four week average of 482,000 was the highest since last November.

Once again it’s all about jobs, and jobs aren’t created unless the economy is growing above 3%, and initial claims are below 400,000. Unemployment ticked up slightly to 8.5% in Springfield while the Illinois Department of Employment Security reported a loss of 600 construction jobs in the Springfield area. Although unemployment did move up only slightly, it remained the highest for July in over three decades.

That’s the reason homes aren’t flying off the shelf with interest rates at a six decade low. It doesn’t matter how low rates are, if you don’t have a job, you’re not going to buy a house, or much of anything else for that matter.

Oh to be a buyer in today’s market. The best interest rates they will probably ever get in their lifetimes, a rising inventory of homes for sale, and the fourth lowest prices for any city in the U.S. with a population between 100,000 and 200,000.

There really isn’t such a thing as a good real estate market or a bad real estate market. There just simply is a real estate market. It’s always good for some people, or it’s bad for some people. Today the market is best for a home buyer that doesn’t have to sell a home before they can buy. The market is worst for the home seller that must sell, and purchased their home at the top of the seller’s market.

Until there is a real recovery and people are getting jobs lifting consumer confidence, we will remain in this newly evolved housing market. Sales in the foreseeable future will run at about 75% of what we could normally expect in our market. It’ll be good for those that sell, and it’ll be bad for those who don’t. About one in four or five will sell the rest of the year.

Make this a great week from Fritz and Kristie Pfister and The PfisterSuccess Team Inc. at RE/MAX Professionals of Springfield. Are you in a situation where you must sell your home? It would be an honor to interview for the job. Now with 1300 closed home sales since forming our team in 2000. We have the experience necessary in markets like today. Call us at 652-7653.

The opinions expressed here are solely those of Fritz Pfister, or identified sources,  and not necessarily those of RE/MAX Professionals of Springfield, or RE/MAX International.

In case the president missed it this past week; initial weekly claims for unemployment surged to 500,000 the most since November of 2009. The four week average jumped to 482,500. Wow, that means just under two million people filed for unemployment the past four weeks. Don’t miss that putt Mr. President, and by the way congratulations on your Summer of Recovery program. Good job. Government spending sure has turned things around. Those deficits are nothing.

The Obama mortgage relief program funded with $75 billion is so complex and lengthy that half of the 1.3 million who had applied dropped out AP reported this week. The White House says it’s because they didn’t qualify for the program. That fits right in with “we’re headed in the right direction.” Realty Trac says we’re on pace for a record number of foreclosures, surpassing one million this year.

What’s that Mr. President? We don’t have to worry about those folks losing their homes because you left Fannie and Freddie out of the financial reform bill so Barney Frank could see they make the same easy loans. That’s brilliant.

Home builder confidence fell to the lowest level since March of 2009. Guess that will happen when your industry is already in a depression. The 330,000 pace of new home construction in June was second lowest since records have been kept (1963), beating only May’s 300,000 pace.

Don’t drive too far to the left on this hole Mr. President, that’s out of bounds. Why worry about the housing industry? Isn’t Browner helping at EPA mandating through regulations new green building standards? By the way did you know this is an Eco friendly golf course? People will buy those expensive energy efficient houses like hot cakes, just like they will the Volt.

Meanwhile having hit the reset button, our new friend and ally Russia inserted the fuel rods into Iran’s first nuclear reactor. Isn’t that great that Iran can now generate clean nuclear electricity? Oh don’t worry about Iran building a bomb and blowing up Israel, our buddy Russia said they are going to take all the spent fuel rods, and that’s where you get enriched uranium for a bomb. Just think of the CO2 that won’t be put into the atmosphere.

Imam Rauf is off traveling the world raising money for the mosque at ground zero. That sure was nice of you Mr. President to pay for his trip. Here’s a quote from an IBD editorial: “The mosque at Ground Zero is not about outreach. Evidently President Obama and New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg are not aware of why the name Cordoba House was picked. It is named after the bloody Muslim conquest of Cordoba, Spain, in 711. It will be seen as another Islamic victory.”

Mr. President did you know this week the hard hat union members came out and said they would refuse to work on a mosque at ground zero? What’s that you say Mr. President? You’ll have your Chicago people talk to the New York People?

Ladies and gentlemen be afraid, very afraid for your country. The economy, foreign policy, national defense, energy, and our very form of government are headed for disaster.

May the tide begin to turn in November, and may the job be finished in 2012. Or kiss America as you, and the world has known it good bye. Vote, and get ten people you know to vote. This may be our last chance.

The opinions expressed here are solely those of Fritz Pfister, or identified sources,  and not necessarily those of RE/MAX Professionals of Springfield, or RE/MAX International.

Although sales pending in August are down by 18.7% from last August that is an improvement. The 91 home listings that went pending this week is only the second week since May that 90 has been reached. We can thank the falling interest rates for this momentum.

Closed home sales are a different matter, down 32% with 7 business days remaining in the month. This was to be expected following a serious slowdown following the expiration of the tax credits, with sales pending slipping 32% from the pace set in January through April and down 27.8% from the same time in 2009. This provides evidence that the tax credit did not add buyers to the market in any measurable amount, it only caused buyers to change their timeline for purchasing a home. Year to date closed home sales are eking out only a 2.1% gain over 2009.

It’s all about jobs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in the week ending August 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted claims was 500,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous weeks revised figure of 488,000. The four week average increased 8,000 to 482,500. After falling to a yearly low of 425,000 in July unemployment claims have reversed course and are climbing. This is bad news.

The latest numbers for the Springfield area were for June with a reported 1400 fewer jobs from June of 2009. Economist from the NAR predict another 1400 jobs will be lost in the Springfield area in the next 12 months. This is not good news for the housing market.

At the current pace of sales about 1200 to 1300 more home sales should close by years end. With the number of homes for sale growing to 1788 today, combined with an estimated additional 1500 to 1600 homes yet to be listed by years end, the market will have about 3300 to 3400 home sellers vying for 1200 to 1300 home buyers. Year to date 2273 home listings with Realtors have sold and closed from 5081 listings, less than 45%.

Without jobs being created the housing market is short in supply of the most important ingredient, first time home buyers. Without these buyers purchasing the market has an oversupply of move up buyers that can’t purchase until they sell their home. Many are desperately wanting to move so they can take advantage of record low interest rates. This will probably be a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy a home with rates this low.

We have our challenges in the Springfield area housing market. The evidence of the weak economy can be found right here in the heartland. Although there were tax credits available this year for first time and repeat home buyers, in spite of record low interest rates, closed home sales today of 2273 continue to lag behind 2008 the year of the financial meltdown.

The Washington Post reported that J.P. Morgan Chase cut their forecast for growth in the GDP for the remainder of the year by one percentage point in each quarter. That translates into a 1.5% growth in the third quarter, and a 2% growth rate in the fourth quarter. Why do we care about the growth rate? History shows us that jobs are not created unless the economy is growing by at least 3% a year. This is the slowest pace of recovery for any recession since WWII.

Businesses continue to refuse to hire due to uncertainty created by the government. A proposed jobs bill the president has asked congress to act upon in September is not the right answer according to even the most liberal economists. It is an attempt to provide $30 billion to community banks for small business loans. Small businesses aren’t asking for loans, they are asking for customers.

The uncertainty faced by small businesses is overwhelming. The health care reform is driving up taxes by $562 billion over the next ten years, new regulations for reporting will add $19 billion in costs according to the NFIB. The proposed expiration of the Bush tax cuts on the top two tax brackets, and increase in capital gains taxes will impact over 70% of small business owners.

On the consumer front confidence and spending are nearing record lows. Although retail spending bumped up in July it was a meager .7% percent. Included in the proposed expiration of tax cuts millions of middle class families will see their taxes increase due to the alternative minimum tax, and marriage penalty. The death tax going from zero this year to 55% next year will adversely impact both families and small businesses.

Everything government has done has not worked as predicted, and in most cases has had the opposite impact. How much longer can America wait before realizing the plans in place will not lead to recovery and job creation? Too many economists are now saying the odds of a double dip recession have increased to 40%, and if the Bush tax cuts are allowed to expire odds go even higher.

We will have to wait and see what action the congress takes on taxes. Unfortunately so will families who won’t spend, and so will small businesses who won’t hire until this issue is settled.

Meanwhile back in good old Springfield Illinois, one of the most stable and predictable housing markets in the nation, we keep plugging along, defying the odds, and weathering an economic storm brought on by our very own government(s).

Make this a great week from Fritz and Kristie Pfister and the Pfister Success Team Inc. at RE/MAX Professionals of Springfield. If you need to sell your home this year give us a call at 652-7653, 75% of our team listings have sold compared to 44.7% for the market, we average 47 days on the market to sale compared to 79, and we put more money in our sellers pockets by averaging over 97% of the asking price compared to the markets 95.8%. This ain’t our first rodeo. Call us at 652-7653.

The opinions expressed here are solely those of Fritz Pfister, or identified sources,  and not necessarily those of RE/MAX Professionals of Springfield, or RE/MAX International.

It would be easy to misinterpret the current trends in the housing market if you only depended upon main stream media outlets. That’s why we’re here on Let’s Talk Real Estate so you can have real time information. The trend lines are down for closed sales, pending sales, and prices as we wrap up summer 2010.

In all fairness last year the market was just getting positive momentum from the initial first time home buyer tax credits. There were some good numbers posted through the November 30th deadline. Also in fairness we have record low interest rates that in any normal or average economy would have houses selling like hot cakes. They’re not. Why? The lack of jobs.

There was significantly bad news on the jobs front this week. The governemnt reported initial claims for unemployment jumped to 484,000 ballooning the four week average to 473,500, both the highest since February.

This presents a major problem for the housing market. Without any meaningful number of jobs being created the demand for homes is diminished. It doesn’t matter how low interest rates go, if you don’t have a job you can’t buy a home, or refinance to save a home from foreclosure. Realty Trac reported foreclosures increased again in July up 6% over last year. These aren’t from sub prime borrowers, these are from people who have lost jobs.

There are two things you must consider when deciding to sell a home in the Springfield housing market. The proof of a weak economy today will make selling your home more challenging. So do you try to sell now heading towards the end of summer and into the fall market, or do you wait and sell in the spring?

Only you can answer that question, each person’s situation is unique. But consider this; the best time to make a move up is in a declining market. Why? Say prices fall 10%. Your $150,000 home may only sell for $135,000, or for $15,000 less. However the $225,000 home you want may only sell now for $202,500,  $22,500 less. You would be realizing a net gain of $7,500. Put that together with the lowest interest rates in decades and that’s a winner. Your challenge is getting sold so you can buy.

The second thing to consider is if you put off selling until the spring, what happens if interest rates go up one, two, or three percent? That will drive down prices and eliminate more home buyers from the market. One of my greatest concerns is that in a normal Springfield housing market people move about once in every five to seven years. With a record number of refinances ongoing at around 4% interest rates, will those families change their moving habits if rates return to the twenty year average of 8%?

In my opinion with the Fed keeping interest rates so low for so long attempting to keep the economy from sliding farther into recession, they are eliminating future demand for homes. Repeat buyers who purchase more for convenience than necessity will not be moving if they have to trade a 4% loan for 6, 7, or 8% mortgage money. That’s down the road a ways. Could be 6 months, could be a couple years. But it’s coming.

As I’ve shared with you frequently over the past year and a half until you’re probably sick of hearing this, jobs are the key to the local housing market. In fact Tim Landis wrote this week in the SJR an article with the headline: Real estate market needs employment situation to improve. Old news Tim.

I say not only does the real estate market need job improvement but so does every sector of the economy, and government. But housing is key to the economy. When new homes are being built, or existing homes are selling, there is no other industry that creates ancillary jobs like housing.

Everything the government has done has been harmful to housing. Over regulation by EPA with erosion control mandates, lead paint rules, and through the failed stimulus new green building standards all of which increase costs dramatically for builders and remodelers. This kills construction jobs along with ancillary jobs.

What about government tax credits, didn’t that help the housing market? I say no. All it did was cause people to change their buying habits. If the tax credit added a lot of buyers to the market, then why are we barely 3% ahead in closed sales year to date? Because people who would normally have purchased homes during the summer purchased in the spring to get the tax credit. However this is proof that if you incentivize something people will take advantage of it.

The biggest challenge I see going forward is a federal government starting with the president, Secretary of Treasury, cabinet, and czars who have little or no private sector experience. Here is a link to an excellent article “A Cabinet From Another World”; http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article/543650/201008121904/The-Cabinet-From-Another-World.aspx posted at Investors.com.

If you have no experience in the private sector all you can do is theorize what to do. The difference between theory and real world experience is evident in the results. Millions have lost jobs when the stimulus was to have created millions of jobs, at least in theory. This is the most inexperienced White House, and cabinet in history. Don’t believe me, read the article. You will see the resumes of the top decision makers. The good intentions of the theoreticians in control of government today have failed to create jobs. Families can’t be fed or make house payments on good intentions.

Tim Landis is right, the housing market needs the jobs situation to improve. That’s not going to happen with an Obama administration imposing massive new programs creating hundreds more bureaucracies that will require tens of billions of tax dollars a year to operate. Billions that can’t be used for private sector jobs. Bigger government is an anchor upon the private sector. The president wonders why banks aren’t loaning and companies aren’t hiring?  It is because he is regulating and taxing them out of business, or at least into survival mode.

You want less of something? Tax it or regulate it. You want more of something? Incentivize it.

Until government takes its boot off the neck of the private sector unleashing our entrepreneurial potential, you can expect double digit unemployment, higher taxes, and higher costs of living as the norm. As a result I believe the Springfield housing market has entered a new norm. Better than most markets, but significantly smaller. Sales will remain slow but steady at about 75% of the pace of sales that was the old norm. This will not change until the economy improves and jobs are created.

Welcome to the new Springfield housing market. There will be fewer winners than in the past, but there will be winners. Your success will be determined by how you sell, and whom you choose when selling your home. Best wishes.

Make this a great week from Fritz and Kristie Pfister and the Pfister Success Team Inc. at RE/MAX Professionals of Springfield. It would be an honor to show you the way to the winners circle. We’ve been to the closing table 1361 times since 2000. Second to none. Call us at 652-7653.

The opinions expressed here are solely those of Fritz Pfister, or identified sources,  and not necessarily those of RE/MAX Professionals of Springfield, or RE/MAX International.

Here are the unofficial numbers for the Springfield area for July 2010. Closed home sales of 233 down 43% from June, and down 39.5% by 152 sales from July of ‘09. Sales pending of 341 up by 19% over June, and down 22.85% by 101 from July of ‘09. The median sale price of $106,000 down by 8.22% from July of ‘09. Year to date the median sale price is dead even with 2009 at $110,000. The official numbers will be released from The Capital Area Association of Realtors the last week of the month.

The 233 closed home sales in July is the lowest on record. The association’s records only go back to 1997. In fact in 1997 there were 210 closed home sales in July, however at that time the Taylorville and Jacksonville associations had not joined the Springfield association to form the Capital Area Association. When you deduct Christian and Morgan county from the 233 July sales there were only 191 sales in Sangamon, Menard, and Macoupin counties in July. Those are winter not summer numbers.

The good news is that we have reversed trends from the bottom in May and June for sales pending, but there’s little consolation when the rebound only brings you up to being down by 23% from last year. I believe we have evolved now into a new market as a result. I predicted in June that we would have a bump of activity in July, and we did with sales pending climbing three weeks in a row to the best in two months with 99 sales pending during the last week of July. The first week in August there were only 72 sales pending a five week low.

Looks like the market is going to play out just as I feared and predicted. It’s going to be a slow but steady market for the remainder of the year with the exception of a little bump in activity following Labor Day. Probably along the order of our July bump. This in spite of interest rates falling below the basement. It is truly an incredible time to be a home buyer. I guarantee that one day you will be telling someone; you wouldn’t believe what the interest rates were back in 2010!

I’m sure most of you heard all the economic reports this week, and it is simply not good. The claim that we are in a recovery without jobs being created rings hollow. The Department of Labor reported that weekly initial claims for unemployment jumped 19,000 to 479,000 a three month high. The unemployment rate for July remained at 9.5% in spite of a loss of 131,000 jobs which means hundreds of thousands of people fell off the rolls and are no longer being counted. The 71,000 private sector jobs created in July was below expectations and well below the 200,000 a month needed to begin adding jobs and lowering the unemployment rate.

In other economic news reported this week from the headlines; Laffer: Taxing Rich Will Kill Recovery; Factory orders drop for second straight month; Economic recovery falls to thrifty shoppers; Bernancke: Economy has long way to go; State recovery painfully slow; Fannie Mae requests $1.5 billion in taxpayer aid; Fourth straight month for weak retail sales; Consumers cut back on credit cards again; and so went the economic news this week.

Another headline I found to be incredible; Obama praises rebound of auto industry. Where did the president make his announcement? At a Ford plant, a company that didn’t take any bailout money. Saying that 55,000 jobs in the auto sector have been created is true, but what wasn’t mentioned was that followed a loss of 300,000 jobs following the government buyout of GM and Chrysler. Tens of thousands lost jobs as dealerships were ordered closed by the car czar. Locally after over 50 years Guiffre lost the Buick dealership for no apparent reason.

Good news this week from the Gulf as the Deep Horizon well leak has been plugged stopping the flow of oil. The bad news is that the Obama administrations moratorium on off shore drilling remains in effect in spite of two courts ruling that action was unlawful, and oil experts along with scientists saying the moratorium is unnecessary has caused tens of thousands in the oil industry to join the ranks of the unemployed and has placed 30% of our domestic oil supply out of production. This doesn’t make any economic sense any time let alone during a recession.

The point folks is the economic policies coming out of Washington do in fact have the boot upon the neck of businesses in the U.S. and especially small businesses, the engine for job growth. As long as these policies continue there won’t be a recovery.

Here’s the facts; wealth redistribution kills wealth generation. Over regulation kills businesses. That’s exactly what is happening in our economy today. Until those policies change there won’t be any meaningful job growth and millions will remain out of work. The 71,000 private sector jobs that were created in July show the strength of U.S. businesses to grow jobs in spite of government’s boot on their neck. Just think what would happen if that boot was removed from the neck of businesses.

Uncertainty has businesses frozen in place. The costs of Obamacare are starting to come into focus and will be much more expensive than we were told. The costs of the new financial reform bill remains unknown. Tax increases appear on the way for the wealthy which are primarily small business owners. Carbon taxes or Cap and Trade remained unresolved but represent another major cost to be added to businesses. In an environment like this there won’t be any job growth soon.

The newly evolving housing market will be substantially slower than recent years, including 2008 when the financial crisis hit. I predicted in December that home sales would fall modestly by 3% to 4% to 3500 to 3600 home sales this year. That may have been optimistic considering the current trends. Should this trend evolve into the norm then we could see home sales slow to near the 3000 mark or below by next year. That would take us back to levels of the late 1990’s.

Congratulations to builder’s Mike Von Behren, and John Stites. Both wrote letters to the editor that expressed their concern regarding over regulation from EPA that increases their costs to do business substantially, and regulations that will put builders and contractors out of business. Something we’ve reported here, validated by business people who bear the brunt of government regulations.

To conclude today’s weekly observations I would like to quote Milton Friedman who would have been 98 last week, quote; “Fortunately we are waking up. We are again recognizing the dangers of an over-governed society, coming to understand that good objectives can be perverted by bad means, that reliance on the freedom of people to control their own lives in accordance with their own values is the surest way to achieve the full potential of a great society.”

Milton Friedman wrote that quote in the book ‘Free to Choose’ in 1980 when Barack Obama, who celebrated his 49th birthday this week was still a teenager. Apparently he never read that book. Too bad, because today we need to awaken again to stop the over-governing of our society, that is killing our free market economy and keeping us from our potential as a society, just as happened in the Carter era.

Make this a great week from Fritz and Kristie Pfister and The Pfister Success Team Inc. at RE/MAX Professionals of Springfield. Need to sell your home? It would be an honor to interview for the job. Since forming our team in 2000 we have closed 1294 home sales, most of all Realtors, of which 806 were representing home sellers, 167 more than anyone. Proof of the effectiveness of our selling systems. Call us at 652-7653 to get on the road to sold.

The opinions expressed here are solely those of Fritz Pfister, or identified sources,  and not necessarily those of RE/MAX Professionals of Springfield, or RE/MAX International.

Milton Friedman said that following the Carter statist experiment and the Reagan recovery. Glad Milton is not here, he would not believe America has regressed to the point where the Obama administration has led us and is leading us to, statism and tyranny. I recommend The Heritage Foundation if you are serious about saving freedom and individual liberty in America. Heritage consists of the finest conservative minds that do the research for you, report upon the actions our government is taking or proposing, and the ultimate consequences. It only costs $25 a year. This is a choice I strongly urge you to make. America can only survive with an educated electorate.

I also recommend the book “Liberty and Tyranny” by Mark Levin. An outstanding, easy to read and understand book regarding our founding principles, liberty, freedom, and the constitution versus the statist agenda that we are currently under attack from today. From the environmentalists, to bureaucrats, to unions, you will see that our individual liberties are in danger and threatened by the elected officials running our government. Another choice you should make. It will clarify the stupefying actions Obama makes. There are reasons for these actions, and none are good for you. That is if you cherish your liberty.

Why would I make these recommendations? Because I love my liberty, my country, and want my children and grandchildren to experience the greatest freedom ever known in the history of mankind; America.  That is all threatened today by Obama and the Democrats of the far left like Pelosi, Reid, and the dozens of Czars that are writing regulations that will impact everything you do in your life.

We now have a mandate that we have to buy a product (health insurance), from whom, for how much, and whether it meets the governments approval. If not then you will be fined and harassed by the IRS. You call this progress? I call it tyranny. Liberal good intentions always lead to the loss of your personal property (your money), and harmful unintended consequences (bankrupting the nation), but the line is drawn at denying Americans their freedom of choice and the theft of their liberty.

Climate change is a gross exaggeration at best and fraud at worst. The ‘green’ movement is full of reds, radicals, leftists who are using the environment to destroy America from within, and Obama is intent on using this issue to steal your liberty, your tax dollars, jobs, mobility all in the name of saving the planet. Even George Carlin did a gig about the vanity of the climate change preachers, and the sheer ignorance of the believers for being such suckers. George was no conservative, nor was he stupid.

Deficit spending is placing the chains of debt (slavery) upon our society and future generations. Obama cannot be trusted for a thing he says. He’s proven so. He rails against deficits while he increases deficits. To what benefit isn’t evident, he has made the economy worse, in two years Obama has added $3 trillion to the deficit where it took the evil Bush 8 years to add $1.3 trillion. Now Obama says he will call the deficit hawks bluff this coming year, which is a statist trap to increase taxes stealing more of your personal property and liberty. I hope the lame Republicans in office don’t fall for it. The complete economic destruction from within would clearly be in reach for Obama and the statists if a VAT tax, Cap and Trade costs, income taxes are implemented. This would be catastrophic to the economy.

We must have a sea change in congress this November 2. I don’t care what party a candidate belongs to, as long as they believe in the constitution, limited government, individual rights, and liberty. Both members of both parties say one thing on the campaign trail then vote otherwise when in office. They must be held accountable. The Marxist regime of the Obama administration must be stopped, if they can be stopped.

Can be stopped? Here’s a link to a very thought provoking article by two men who served in previous presidential administrations, a little inside look at what Obama could do even if congress is taken away from him: http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.investors.com%2FNewsAndAnalysis%2FArticle.aspx%3Fid%3D542171&h=665e7. The title of the article for that link is “Will Washington’s Failures Lead to Second American Revolution?”

Why the purely political blog today? Yesterday a caller on Let’s Talk Real Estate said I should never mix politics and religion with business, that he was in sales for 25 years, and that he has friends who were considering doing business with me, but now will be unable to. My response? I made a conscious decision to talk about politics on my radio show, website and everywhere I can because the commissions I could earn weren’t worth the loss of my country. That what country I would leave my children is more important than any commission I could earn.

I arrived in Springfield Illinois the summer of 1980 with a beagle dog named Chester, and everything I owned in my Air Force duffel bag. Didn’t own a car, nothing. Through perseverance, determination, faith, and a lot of hard work I have been able to earn a very good living. Only in America! But that is all changing under Obama. I fear for America and our children. I don’t fear losing a commission because someone made a choice because they don’t agree with me politically. That’s the beauty of America, they are free to make that choice. At least for now.

Here’s the choice I have made; in the not too distant future I will be planted in the marble orchard at Camp Butler. I want my dash to mean something. If people choose to harm my business because I decided to take a stand, then I don’t care if all that I have left are the personal items in that duffel bag, and a loving dog. My children, grandchildren, wife, family, America, freedom, and liberty are much more important than any damn commission.

A free man with no property is wealthier than a rich man living in tyranny.

What will you choose?

The opinions expressed here are solely those of Fritz Pfister, or identified sources,  and not necessarily those of RE/MAX Professionals of Springfield, or RE/MAX International.

Here’s the preliminary report for July 2010 compared to July 2009: Closed home sales of 214 down 171 from 385 or by 44.41%. Sales pending of 335 down 107 from 442 or by 24.2%. The median sale price $108,950 down $6,550 from $115,500 or by 8.26%. Not good if you’re needing to sell your home.

There are some bright spots to be gleaned from activity in July. The pace new listings are coming to the market slowed with 462 new listings 59 fewer than last year. However the 1755 homes listed for sale today is up 6% over last year due to the decline in sales pending.

Another bright spot is that sales pending are only down 24.2% following two months of 33% declines. That’s represents the bump in activity that I predicted based upon pent up demand building over nine weeks of declines following expiration of the tax credits. Local Realtors posted 99 sales pending the past week the best week in two months.

There’s risk when reporting on just one month, as local Realtors will find out following the SJR Business Section reporting the record median sale price for June in last Tuesdays edition. While they were reporting the old news, people who listen to Let’s Talk Real Estate were ahead of the curve receiving up to the minute reports that July prices were declining.

Sales were so soft in July, only one month following the end of glowing first half reports that closed home sales were up 15.7%, are now only up 4.37% year to date. The same holds true for the median sale price which was up by 1.7% at mid year and now has fallen back to even and trending down.

There were few bright spots in economic reports this week. The U.S. Department of Labor reported in the week ending July 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 457,000, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous weeks revised figure of 468,000. This was the third decline in four weeks but did not move the meter following the previous weeks increase of 37,000.

The GDP was reported yesterday and came in at an anemic 2.4% for the second quarter. Neil Irwin of The Washington Post reported businesses adding to their inventories contributed 1.05 percentage points to growth, and government spending added 0.9 percent to growth with stimulus spending winding down. The 22% rise in equipment and software spending by businesses was the only bright spot.

Irwin concluded: Put it altogether, and you have a lot of indicators that are neutral to negative, and only one clear positive. That leaves me feeling not very good about the outlook for the remainder of 2010 and 2011. End quote from business writer Neil Irwin of The Washington Post.

The really bad news this week was that consumer confidence fell to a reading of 50.4 as reported by Bloomberg, and this following a steep decline in the consumer sentiment index last week. The one main theme from all the reports I read is that it’s all about jobs. Consumers will not regain confidence until jobs are being created, regardless what the stock market does.

That brings me right back to where I started in December when looking through my crystal ball into 2010, that jobs and consumer confidence would be a drag on the market. Adding to a slowing economy is uncertainty for families and businesses who are attempting to calculate the financial impact of massive legislative bills passed this year in the form of health care, and financial regulatory reform. It may take years to sort that out as hundreds of new bureaucracies are established followed by the rules and edicts of those new entities.

Adding to consumer concerns about jobs and uncertainty are taxes. Locally county schools are asking for a 1% sales tax increase which would raise $19 to $20 million a year. District 186 still hasn’t announced how they plan to fund and move forward with their $252 million building proposal.

The state budgetary mess continues with Governor Quinn calling for at least a 1% if not 2% increase in state income taxes. The Obama administration will allow the Bush tax cuts for the top two tax brackets to expire harming a majority of small business owners. Capital gains tax rates will increase 30%, and taxes will go up on dividends depressing investment into the economy. The marriage penalty is reinstated, and the AMT will impact millions more families.

Nobody knows for sure what the final action will be regarding the Bush tax cuts. Congress must act first. If no action is taken that would mean every tax bracket would increase. There’s talk about allowing the top two brackets to expire to extending all the tax cuts for up to two years. We’ll have to wait and see.

With all this uncertainty created by government is it any wonder consumer confidence is in the tank?

Going forward in the local housing market sales will be slow but steady the remainder of the year with demand reduced to the basics; transferred, out or under grew the home, death, divorce, foreclosure, building a new home, to the desire to take advantage of record low interest rates. It doesn’t appear job creation will be adding many buyers to the market.

That brings me to the really good news of the week for the Springfield economy. After the State Journal Register reported one day that the state may not approve the building plans for St. Johns Hospital, the next day the plans were approved. Don’t  underestimate how great this news is. The health care community is the stabilizing force within our economy. Be sure to thank your local health care people whenever you see them!

Make this a great week from Fritz and Kristie Pfister and The Pfister Success Team Inc. at RE/MAX Professionals of Springfield. I need your help. My listing inventory is becoming depleted due to our successful marketing strategies. If you or someone you know is thinking of selling their home, I would appreciate the opportunity to interview for the job. Why call? Our listings sell at about twice the rate of the market average, and in about half the time of the market average. There’s more, however call us at 652-7653 and we’ll share with you how to get your home sold in these uncertain economic times.

The opinions expressed here are solely those of Fritz Pfister, or identified sources,  and not necessarily those of RE/MAX Professionals of Springfield, or RE/MAX International.

Let’s examine the upward pressure on taxes the liberals are endorsing or have endorsed that impact tax payers in Sangamon County.

Increase county sales tax 1% for schools that would raise over $20 million annually.

District 186, $252 million building project with source of funding unknown.

State income tax increase of 1 to 2 percent.

Bush tax cuts to expire for top two tax brackets, capital gains taxes increase 30%, dividend taxes increase, marriage penalty reinstated, and child deduction cut by 50%.

Obamacare taxes, regulations, and mandatory insurance purchases.

Costs of new Financial Regulation bill passed on by banks and businesses.

The liberals say each are only small increases, however the cumulative impact would drain tens of millions from the private sector to government at a time we are in recession. This would extend the recession and increase unemployment. Technically we are not in a recession, and that’s good if you are big government or a crony capitalist. I say as long as over 14 million Americans are out of work there is no recovery, and yes Virginia we are still in recession.

Kudos to Sangamon County for being fiscally responsible, a rare commodity at any level of government today.