Bad News is Good, Good News Is Bad?
May 9th, 2010OOOOps, I meant to type in ‘million’ not ‘billion’ says the wall street trader who caused a plunge of nearly one thousand points in the DOW on one day this week. The market recovered most of the loss however ended down by almost 350 points that day.
Bad news? No, it’s good news! Especially for the bond market as institutional investors flooded the bond market with their wall street withdrawals. The result? Good news for prospective home buyers. Thirty year mortgage interest rates fell below 5% to around 4.8%. Fifteen year rates fell close to 4% at 4.25%. FHA/VA loans fell to a near record 4.625% on their 30 year loans.
Please check with your local lender to calculate the APR. That’s a made up government rate meant to protect you. Good news right? No, bad news because when the government is set on protecting you, watch out.
For two decades I have witnessed the Annual Percentage Rate as second only to how Illinois collects property taxes, as the most confusing thing consumers encounter when buying or selling a home. Soon to be third behind the new Truth in Lending laws meant to protect the consumer which will, and have resulted in mass confusion, delayed closings, and more work for everyone involved in the home sale. Infinitely more confusing than the old law. Isn’t bigger government good? No, bad in this case.
Member brokers of The Capital Area Association of Realtors MLS reported a record 392 closed home sales in April, besting the old record of 390 set in 2004. An all time record 639 home listings were sold pending in April up over 50%! Good news right?
You bet, for those home sellers that closed or are under contract. But bad news for the over 1600 home sellers still searching for a buyer, 1031 home buyers are now out of the market.
Tax credits for first time and repeat home buyers with an April 30th deadline that spurred this record activity is good news right? You bet, for real estate agents, title companies, appraisers, insurance agents, lenders, and the buyers and sellers of those homes.
Bad news for the 100% of tax payers who will have to pay back the estimated scores of billions in cost plus interest to benefit less than 1% of the population. Bad news for home sellers that didn’t strike pay dirt, they will have to rely upon a depleted buyer pool to find a buyer.
FAQ: Do you think the tax credit will be extended?
Could the ‘good’ tax credit cause the ‘bad’ result of buyers waiting for more tax payer congressional handouts before buying a home? Yes, and that is bad news for home sellers.
Bad news too for home buyers that wait. They could miss out on interest rates that may not be this low again for decades. But then again, good news for buyers who act, because fewer buyers means home prices will fall.
For every action there is a reaction. The laws of economics dictate so. Good news? No, bad news, there’s no escaping this law.
What is good can be bad, what is bad can be good. Go figure. Or as Forrest Gump would say; that’s just one more thang.
The opinions expressed here are solely those of Fritz Pfister, or identified sources, and not those of RE/MAX Professionals Springfield, or RE/MAX International.
