SJR AP Article is More Alice in Wonderland Spin, January 2, 2012
January 2nd, 2012Today’s article by AP writer Jim Kuhnhenn; “Campaigns adjust to economic news. Obama careful not to overstate progress, Republicans say he’s made recovery slower” was published in the SJR. Progress, really? Recovery, really?
On Saturday December 31 my predictions for the Springfield Illinois housing market were posted, beginning with my predictions for the economic outcome of an Obama administration:
Quoting from my weekly observations on October 23, 2008 [quote]: If Obama wins, and Democrats control the Senate, and House be prepared for sweeping changes to the left, and an unchecked power to do as they will. The citizens of Springfield, and of Illinois know the economic catastrophe caused in Illinois as a result of Democrats controlling all three branches of state government. It will occur on a much grander scale nationally.
The bottom line is the housing market will be severely impacted. Real estate is, has been, and always will be a supply and demand commodity. Fewer jobs means fewer buyers. More taxes means less money available to be spent on job growth, job retention, goods and services. Looks like we’ll be in a buyers market for an indefinite period of time should Obama win, and implement his campaign promises. [end quote]
More from those predictions [quote]:
There has been some positive news lately regarding unemployment at 8.6%, although understated because of 6 million people no longer counted, declining initial claims for unemployment, a bump in consumer confidence, housing starts, pending home sales, and manufacturing. These upward trends are overstated, conditions still aren’t good. [end quote]
Seems my desire to pack ten gallons of information into a quart jar (people don’t like reading long articles), means this sentence needs more explanation: “These upward trends are overstated, conditions still aren’t good.” More on that in a second, first AP’s representations.
When you have pseudo-journalists at AP and elsewhere twisting themselves into pretzels trying to cheerlead for an Obama with a record, they must use journalistic stealth. An example [quote]: “His Republican rivals, in the face of late-arriving economic good news are making slight adjustments, arguing that Obama’s policies have been a drag on a recovery that could have taken hold sooner……. The competing rhetoric reflects the positive indicators in areas ranging from retail sales and housing to unemployment and falling gas prices. All this has pushed up consumer confidence….” [end quote]
“Late-arriving economic good news” implies that Obama’s policies were going to work, and that there has in fact been good economic news.
“Republicans arguing that Obama’s polices created a drag on a recovery that could have taken hold sooner” implies there has been a recovery, and that a ten ton double anchor on the private sector is merely a drag.
“Positive indicators in areas ranging from retail sales and housing to unemployment and falling gas prices. All this has pushed up consumer confidence….”, well now this statement is pure stealth to mislead the casual reader. This brings us back to my assertion: “These upward trends are overstated, conditions still aren’t good.”
We don’t need to go too far out into the weeds. All one need do is look at results. From my prediction blog, [quote] : “President Obama is diverting attention from his record which has produced record unemployment, the most people in history in poverty, on welfare, and food stamps.” Records like these make the main stream media’s challenge to elevate their hero back into office a challenge, and belie their ‘implications’ that there is a recovery, and there are good economic signs. Let’s examine briefly AP’s claims.
Retail sales. Up less than the 5% predicted. What Obama and AP journalists seldom acknowledge is that if you discount your products you will generate sales and lots of dollars, although that doesn’t mean you made much of a profit if any. The jury is still out on year end sales.
Housing. My specialty with 25 years in business. New home sales will finish the year as either the worst or next to worst year in 64 years of recorded history. What Mr. AP is pointing to was the 9.3% increase in building starts in November. Apartments were the majority, and homes were down year over year. Only in the eyes of liberal journalists does a decline suggest a rebound. FYI Mr. AP, our market will have the fewest home sales since 1998. Now that’s progress!
Perhaps Mr. AP was pointing to an increase in pending sales. With Dodd Frank making it harder to get a home loan, and for a home sale to appraise, let’s hold our enthusiasm until we see how many actually close. Besides, if your basketball team is averaging 40 points a game to your opponents 80 points, what does a 7.3% point increase do for you?
Existing home sales are pathetic, running at less than 60% of what is considered a healthy market. Mr. AP must have the three consecutive years of headed in the right direction Obama mantra obstructing his view.
Unemployment. Really? Improvement? Anyone with several brain cells who can put 2 + 2 together successfully, knows the 8.6% unemployment rate from November is a ruse. The rate has fallen below 9% due to people no longer being counted, not due to more jobs. In fact there are the fewest number of jobs in America since 1983, declining since the Obama cure-all Stimulus. There are more than two million fewer jobs in America since the Stimulus giveaway. No amount of journalistic stealth can hide that fact.
Falling gas prices? How many of you think it’s a deal when a retailer raises their prices 100% to give you a 25% discount. A little reminder, gas was $1.78 a gallon when Obama took office, today they average over $3.30 a gallon. Another AP reporter said earlier that the average household gas expense was the highest in 30 years, but this reporter sees it as a positive? Enough said.
Consumer confidence. Really? Good? The most recent report exceeded expectations so that makes it good? Little Johnny having scored a 59 on his last test, then tutored by an Obama union teacher expected to raise his score to 62, and Holy Mother of Jesus a miracle happened; Johnny’s score went to 64.5, the best F in months! At the current pace of progress Johnny may get a D by next year.
When 90 represents a stable economy, and 100 represents growth, how do you do a happy dance over a 64.5 reading? FYI Mr. AP, 64.5 remains below July’s reading before the debt ceiling fiasco in August.
This completes the further explanation of my claim: “These upward trends are overstated, conditions still aren’t good.” It was as if the AP was reading my mind, the sycophant Obama cheerleaders are going to take meager progress and attempt to spin it into good news. Nice try fellows.
For the truth about Obama economic policy which served as the basis for my predictions, here is the link to that report: http://springfieldhome.com/uncategorized/december-31-2011-the-springfield-illinois-housing-market-forecast-for-2012/
Happy New Year to all!
The opinions expressed here are solely those of Fritz Pfister or identified sources, and not necessarily those of RE/MAX Professionals of Springfield or RE/MAX International.
