“It’s The Most Wonderful Time of The Year”
November 28th, 2010‘It’s the most wonderful time of the year’ is the title given to the Christmas season. It is for Christians, but what about consumerism for the non-believers, and the housing market?
This Thanksgiving weekend all you heard from the main stream media were stories about Black Friday, stores opening on Thanksgiving day, stores opening earlier than ever, and how sales were great because the economy is rebounding. Really?
American consumers have eliminated a record $150 billion in debt since the financial meltdown. Having eliminated their credit card debt, spending frugally over the year, and saving what they could; isn’t it more likely those people were simply bargain hunters and not really flushed in cash and confidence to go out and spend as the media would have you believe?
Maybe the Wall Street fat cats and big bankers have recovered, thanks to government bailouts, but please don’t tell me the recession is over when there are 15 million Americans still without work. Read the front page story about the unemployed couple from Springfield who say the recovery hasn’t hit Springfield yet.
Certain areas of the nation may have stabilized, Springfield included, but where has there been recovery other than in the suburbs of Washington D.C. with the massive expansion of government at the hands of the Democrats and Obama? Pay for these anointed bureaucrats is more than double the private sector workers (people who actually produce something) that pay the taxes to pay the bureaucrats (who produce nothing). Merry Christmas. There’s recovery for D.C., but what about us out here in fly over country? Talk about a bubble!
The shark feeding frenzy over your earnings is about to begin in the lame duck congress, and following the release of the president’s deficit reduction panel report December 1. I’ll bet you a dime to a donut that most folks who have been saving what they can, have done so because they know the irresponsible spenders will be at their door wanting more taxes, to continue to produce nothing, destroy private sector wealth, and continue to be an anchor upon the private sector.
On the housing front, at least here in Springfield, Thanksgiving through New Years is the slowest time of year for home sales. The market is primarily reduced to fourth and first quarter transferees shopping for a home. Notice the four new doctors announced in the SJR business section as evidence.
One might conclude this time of year to be a bad market. It is for home sellers because of the weakest demand for homes of the year. However for the savvy home buyer it couldn’t be a better time to buy a home. Interest rates this year are simply icing on the cake.
Will buyers be able to steal a home? In 99% of the cases no, but think about this; who has their home on the market this time of year? Serious home sellers or players? Who is the best to negotiate with? A serious home seller or a player? Definition of player; a person or family that doesn’t need to sell but will if they can get an offer too good to refuse. Now answer the previous questions.
Stay tuned here as I make my fearless predictions for the Springfield area housing market in 2011. You can see my 2010 predictions on my December 27, 2009 posting. Didn’t do too bad on those predictions, however it was easier last year. This year those predictions will need to be made before the lame duck congress is adjourned, and before the new congress is sworn in. Both are absolute unknowns. How much harm will government cause the economy this year?
It is the most wonderful time of the year. Compiling year end sales data to see how the housing market performed (hint if you have the chance to bet, take any year 2000 through 2009 as having more home sales than 2010). Looking into that crystal ball to determine what government will do to us next, trying to get a feel for interest rates throughout the year, and if any significant job growth will occur in 2011. The items necessary for an accurate prediction.
It is the most wonderful time of the year.
To my Tea Party friends, Merry Christmas, and thank you for the early present delivered by you on November 2, 2010. The rescue of the American idea began that day. The only country in the history of the world to grant man the freedom to live a life of self determination, and individual liberty, to pursue his own happiness.
To all of my fellow Christians, Merry Christmas, celebrate the joy in the birth of Jesus Christ. The one who truly set man free.
The opinions expressed here are solely those of Fritz Pfister or identified sources, and not necessarily those of RE/MAX Professionals of Springfield or RE/MAX International.
