Fritz Pfister

Last week we advised home buyers and home sellers to put their track shoes on for the dash to the April 30th deadline for tax credits. That mortgage interest rates would start going up probably in the next month or so. Now is the time to act if you want to buy or sell a home.

Activity in the local housing market is up significantly from a slow start. Record low interest rates combined with the tax credits are driving demand, however this historically unprecedented opportunity at best, only has activity back to normal for this time of year.

The first quarter of 2009 had the fewest home sales in our market since 2001 with 648. We are on pace for about 700 this quarter. That is 12.5% below the 800 first quarter sales we averaged at the height of the market from 2003 through 2007. This is not a good sign for the remainder of the year.

What happens in May and June when the tax incentives are no longer available, and interest rates begin to creep up? The SJR reported this week that unemployment in Springfield rose to 10% in January. You combine these three factors and one can conclude that demand will decline. Hopefully the decline is not as pronounced due to the time of year which is normally busy.

It’s decision time for home buyers and home sellers. In my opinion, today through April 30th could be the most active of the year. If interest rates continue to run at record lows, and if the government extends tax credits, that could change, however I don’t have a warm and fuzzy feeling about the market for the second half of the year.

On the national scene the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in the week ending March 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 457,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s unrevised figure of 462,000. The 4-week moving average was 471,250, a decrease of 4,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 475,500. Not an encouraging report. Claims fall to 350,000 and under when there is job growth.

After 14 months it appears it will be decision time on President Obama’s health care bill. This issue has sucked all the oxygen out of the nation’s capitol. It’s time to make a decision and move on to jobs. But that’s the catch 22.

This has been an ugly process, however none uglier than this week when the president made claims that this reform will be the biggest step to deficit reduction since the balanced budget bill in the 1990’s. That is a patently false claim. That claim was based upon a preliminary CBO report that stated as much, however the CBO can only score what is placed in front of them. Garbage in garbage out.

Congressman Paul Ryan provides all the evidence you need to know the CBO numbers are misleading. Included in the numbers are 10 years of taxes yet only six years of expenses. The over $500 billion dollars in Medicare cuts are being double counted. The $271 billion ‘Doc’ fix was removed and placed in separate legislation. Just these two combined exceed the claimed $138 billion in deficit reduction by adding over $600 billion dollars to the deficit. And there’s more than just these items.

I don’t know about you but this doesn’t make any sense to me to take a trillion dollar gamble to save a whopping $138 billion over ten years, when this February alone set a record $225 billion in deficit spending.

The Heritage Foundation projects the real cost of this legislation at $2.3 trillion the first ten years while the administration claims it to be $940 billion. Heritage also projects a loss of 1.6 million jobs due to the $500 billion in taxes placed upon primarily small businesses.

The bill also shifts hundreds of millions of dollars in Medicaid payments onto states who are already broke. Either way, with the economy at risk of a double dip recession this bill is economically irresponsible.

The disingenuous rhetoric is appalling and misleading. Health care proponents say that those opposed are bought and paid for by insurance companies, and only want the status quo. That’s a lie. Insurance company lobbyists helped write the bill and stand to gain over 30 million new customers. They are in on the ruse.

Opponents don’t want the status quo. They see the dangers of a government takeover of the health care industry, they want free market solutions legislated that would insure more people, insure those with pre-existing conditions, and not cost the taxpayers a dime.

The debt this nation is carrying has Moody’s threatening to lower our credit rating. That would have cataclysmic effects as interest payments would skyrocket. Should this bill pass adding to the deficit, and leading to higher unemployment a downgrade in our credit rating becomes more probable.

It is decision time for the nation. Passing a government takeover of health care would place us firmly on the path to becoming a socialist democracy with all the attending attributes of sustained high unemployment, onerous taxation, and limited liberty. As numerous people have said including the president, this is only the first step to a single payer system. Senator Tom Harkin said this is just the starter home.

For the sake of America I hope this bill is defeated, but it doesn’t look as if it will. By hook or crook the progressives in the White House and Congress are going all in for passage. It’s their historic opportunity to alter our form of government that they have sought since Teddy Roosevelt.

If this bill passes using deemed to pass rules, and reconciliation then the door is wide open for Cap and Trade, Amnesty for illegal immigrants, and Card Check legislation. This would divide the nation.

If the health care bill is passed against the will of the people, which has been proven by elections and polling with well over 50% opposed, I have another major concern, this country being thrown into turmoil. Constitutional challenges will be made, and millions of Americans will refuse to comply. That is not an environment that is conducive for an economic recovery.

Yes it is decision time. The future of our country is at stake. Will the progressives win the day, taking over health care, and place trillions more in obligations upon a government with an already unsustainable debt? A fat jockey on a skinny horse doesn’t win any races. Will the weight of government crush the economy? We are going to find out soon. But I know which horse I would bet on.

Make this a great week from Fritz and Krisite Pfister of The Pfister Success Team Inc. RE/MAX Professionals Springfield. If you want to take advantage of this historic opportunity to buy or sell a home call us at 652-7653. It would be an honor to serve your family. It is decision time, the hour glass is running.

The opinions expressed here are solely those of Fritz Pfister, or identified sources,  and not those of RE/MAX Professionals Springfield, or RE/MAX International.

Have you ever wondered why our government says the recession is over while 17 million American workers are jobless, the unemployment rate is closer to 20% than 10% when you count people who are underemployed or who have simply given up looking? That leaders rejoice when ‘only’ 36,000 people lose their jobs in a month?
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