Weekly Observation for February 5, 2011 Housing Market Report for Springfield Illinois

February 5th, 2011

Member brokers of the Capital Area Association of Realtors have through Monday to report January sales, therefore the following report on the Springfield housing market may change slightly if at all. Only one additional sale was reported this week for January as an example. The following are the reported numbers for January 2011 compared to January 2010.

Good news, closed home sales of 179 were up from 167 or by 7.19%, and were the most in four years. Sales pending, those going under contract however were disappointing. The 243 sales pending were down from 260 or by 6.54%, the second fewest in the preceding ten years.

Good news for home sellers on the inventory of homes for sale. The 319 new listings were down from 356 or by 10.39%. The 1383 homes listed for sale today are down 5.3% from last year on this date. The median sale price of $114, 900 was up from $110,000 or by 4.78%. This means there are fewer homes to compete against for a dwindling number of home buyers with prices stable to rising slightly.

What does the local housing market look like going forward into 2011, and what are the major market influences to watch? Jobs are the key to the recovery, and the number of home sales both locally and nationally.

On the national front the news was good this week for first time initial unemployment claims of 415,000 down 42,000 from last weeks adjusted figure of 457,000. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also reported that January unemployment fell from 9.4% to 9.0%. Good news however somewhat misleading, only a total net increase of 36,000 new jobs were reported.

How can the unemployment rate fall by .4% with these few jobs being created? Simple, 1,000,000 people fell off the rolls because they gave up looking for jobs during January. The real unemployment rate when including those who have given up or are working part time because their hours were cut, or who couldn’t find full time employment stands at over 16%. That’s 78% more than the reported 9% unemployment rate.

On the local level reported in today’s SJR from the Chamber of Commerce, Eric Bloxdorf repeated the challenges for 2011; state finances in spite of recently passed tax increases, and federal regulations especially health care reform.

Health care reform is in a terrible mess since Florida Federal Circuit Judge Vinson ruled the law unconstitutional voiding the entire law. There are now eight states who have ceased implementation of the law while others go forward. Nobody knows how to proceed because the Obama administration has not asked for a stay or appeal of the ruling. The constitutionality will ultimately be decided by the Supreme Court but as of today it is declared unconstitutional according to some legal experts.

The uncertainty whether this law will be voided, and the still unknown costs for businesses if implemented will impede job creation. The one thing we do know is that is was unaffordable for 773 businesses and unions who have been granted waivers from complying with the Obamacare mandates impacting over two million workers who would have lost their health care without the waivers.

I will add to the Chambers list of challenges. The greatest threat to our recovery and job creation is the price of gas and food. The risks for rapidly rising prices increased this week with the threat of interruption of oil supplies from the Mideast due to the uprising in Egypt. When President Obama took office the price of oil was $32 a barrel, the price finished Friday just under $90 a barrel.

The reason for the increased oil prices are twofold, worldwide demand as China and India economies grow, and Obama energy policy reducing the domestic supply of oil by placing drilling moratoriums on 95% of American waters, and over seven million acres of land, which the retired CEO of Shell Corporation said if removed would create 350,000 to 400,000 new high paying jobs and add up to 500,000 barrels of oil a day to the domestic supply.

There is little hope the Obama administration beholden to environmental groups will lift the moratoriums placing a disputed hypothesis above the well being of people without jobs, and increasingly unaffordable gas and food prices that will harm poor and middle class families the most. This also risks another pull back in consumer spending like the one in 2008 that sparked the financial meltdown.

President Obama after failing to get Cap n Trade passed by the people’s representatives in congress has ordered new regulations be implemented by executive order through the unelected bureaucrats at EPA. Congress has responded with proposed legislation that would prohibit EPA from imposing jobs killing rules regarding CO2. President Obama responded that he would veto such a law, again proving his allegiance to environmental special interests over the welfare of the poor and middle class families that will see their heating and cooling expenses increase along with gas and food.

To add insult to injury, just as with supporters of Obamacare receiving waivers from having to comply with the new health care law, it was reported on investors.com the following, quote:

It’s good to have friends in high places. Last month, the White House issued tough new rules on CO2 emissions. This month, its biggest corporate supporter wins an exemption. Something smells here.

This has become a pattern for this administration: Impose costly new regulations on the economy, then let some corporations and unions avoid them.

Immelt (CEO of G.E.) heads Obama’s Council on Jobs and Competitiveness. According to Washington Examiner writer Tim Carney, GE has spent $65.7 million lobbying the White House — more than any other company. Given the White House record over the past two years, it’s reasonable to assume it’s playing favorites.

end quote.

This after EPA granted G.E. the first waiver from complying with the new Obama mandated EPA CO2 rules.

These policies represent the biggest obstacles to recovery and job creation. As our job market goes, so goes the number of home sales. Springfield may once again avoid the worst of the economic impact of these policies because we have new medical facilities opening adding jobs, final phases of construction projects to be completed adding jobs, and new retailer Sheels opening their store this summer adding jobs.

Hopefully gas does not rise to $4.50 a gallon by summer as predicted by industry analysts, taking food prices through the roof. If we can avoid those prices we have a chance for a good year. If we do get those prices all bets are off. A modest recovery would likely go into reverse along with home sales and home prices.

Make this a Great week from Fritz and Kristie Pfister and The Pfister Success Team Inc. at RE/MAX Professionals of Springfield. Last chance to register for the free home seller seminar coming this Tuesday, and the free home buyer seminar coming this Thursday. Both seminars begin at 6:00 pm at The Springfield Hilton Garden Inn. The information home sellers will receive will be invaluable in this changing and uncertain market. Home buyers avoid the costly mistakes that happen to folks every day in this market. e-maill fritz@springfieldhome.com or call 652-7653 for reservations. Walk ins are welcome however not guaranteed printed material. That would be like trying to ski without a boat.

The opinions expressed here are solely those of Fritz Pfister or identified sources, and not necessarily those of RE/MAX Professionals of Springfield or RE/MAX International.

 

Weekly Observation for “Gaga Over September” October 24, 2009

October 24th, 2009

The official numbers were released by The Capital Area Association of Realtors (CAAR) for the month of September. It was great news both locally and nationally on home sales. The local market finished up 14.1% to 364 closed home sales, and the median sale price was up 7.9% to $109,000 September over September. Nationally the number [...]

Fritz and Kristie Pfister - Pfister Success Team