Weekly Observation for April 23, 2011 Springfield Runs Opposite the Nation in Home Sales, Again
April 23rd, 2011There were quite a few economic reports this week including the report that existing home sales across the nation rose 3.7% in March, however 40% of all sales were to investors purchasing foreclosures and short sales. Springfield ran opposite again with home sales declining a little over 20%. Local sales pending were down about 30% in March.
Last week I reported here that local Realtors reported 108 sales pending for the week eclipsing the 100 mark for the first time in 49 weeks. Looks like we can’t stand prosperity with sales pending falling to 93 this week. One hundred or more sales pending a week this time of year is as common as finding chocolate inside an M & M.
The CAAR released it’s official report on March sales this week that you received here three weeks ago. Next week I will have the preliminary April numbers, and in a word when comparing year over year it will be ugly. That’s because of the home buyer tax credits. Last April Realtors reported 393 closed sales while heading into the final week this April only 179 have closed.
There were two reports on new home construction. First builder sentiment fell back to 16 from 17 the previous month. A reading of 50 and above indicates a positive outlook. Second home construction rose 7.2% in March to a seasonally adjusted rate of 549,000 units. Economists, according to the AP writer, say 1.2 million new homes a year is considered healthy.
The city of Springfield reports 42 single family permits were issued for the first three months of the year, however 28 were for the Genesis Place project by the Springfield Housing Authority. That means only 14 permits were issued the first quarter outside of government.
The Springfield unemployment rate dropped to 7.6% in March down a full point over a year ago. That’s a good sign, but how much of the decline should be credited to those no longer being counted is not known.
The Department of Labor reported weekly first time claims for unemployment fell slightly last week to 403,000 with the four week average hovering just below 400,000 at 399,000. This is not a good indicator because a report below 400,000 indicates jobs growth.
Gallup who counts all the unemployed however reported that the national unemployment rate dipped below 10% to 9.6% in Mid-March to Mid-April. The underemployment rate fell to 19.2%. Gallup says the jobs improvement of the past year is modest at best, consumer optimism is down sharply, and consumer spending is no better than last year.
Why is the economy starting to stall? Gas and food prices. Food is now the highest on record and rising with the highest food inflation rate in 20 years. This is due to the rise in fuel prices which are forecast to continue to rise into the summer with estimates ranging from $5 to $6 a gallon for gas.
While we desperately need solutions to stop these increasing prices, none are put forward by the administration. President Obama announced in a populist political move that he was having the AG’s office launch an investigation into oil companies for price gouging and into the commodity market to investigate speculators. This will do absolutely nothing to lower the price of oil, gas, or food.
The oil industry is the most regulated industry in America, who are they going to investigate the bureaucrats that regulate them daily? The oil prices are set in the commodity markets not by the oil companies. This happens every time oil rises, an investigation is launched that goes nowhere. A complete waste of time and resources instead of working on a viable solution. The same is true for the commodities markets and speculators. What do they expect to find there? Regulators asleep like air traffic controllers?
The truth is our government started the oil prices to rise. Oil began going up when the Obama administration imposed drilling bans and moratoriums last fall. This sent a signal to speculators and OPEC that America was not going after their own oil at a time worldwide demand was rising. This resulted in a record for the price of gas in December long before any Mideast unrest began.
Geologists say America has more oil reserves than any other country in the world. Why the administration is preventing drilling for that oil is confounding. At the same time the administration prohibits drilling for our own oil they give $3 billion to Columbia for a new refinery when there hasn’t been a new refinery approved in America since the early 1970’s, and they give Brazil $2 billion for offshore drilling and telling them we will be their best customer.
On the common sense scale this doesn’t even register. Why give money to foreign countries to do things that you won’t allow American companies to do right here at home? Literally hundreds of thousands of jobs could be created as the jobs market is stalling, hundreds of millions of barrels of oil could be produced here reducing foreign oil imports, and generate billions in tax revenue to the government. This is simply economic madness, but that’s the administrations position. Guess creating jobs in Columbia and Brazil is more important that creating jobs in America, and taking proactive steps to lower the price of gas and food for struggling American families. This is nonsense.
The most disconcerting news this week however was not the rising fuel and food prices. Standard and Poors lowered its long term outlook for the fiscal health of the United States from stable to negative. This is a warning that the government must stop the most massive deficit spending in our history. The administration is asking congress to raise the debt limit so they can borrow the money to pay the interest on old debt. We’re back to putting the house payment on the credit card, this too is nonsense.
If our government doesn’t work out a plan to balance the budget and begin reducing the current debt the likelihood of a bond crisis grows exponentially. The collapse of the dollar would be significantly more catastrophic than not raising the debt limit and cutting spending. Tax receipts to the government would continue and would be enough to pay our obligations for at least three months. That should be enough time to work out a fiscally responsible budget. But don’t be fooled that the politicians will do the right thing. Political demagogy, and the administration’s lap dog reporting by the mainstream media will mean an increase in the debt limit, and very tenuous times ahead.
Based upon government policies, and inaction on rising prices, our sluggish home market may be the best it will get for the foreseeable future. Would some fiscally responsible adults please run for office and stop this madness? We need a change of direction in Washington D.C. desperately if we are going to have any chance at a meaningful economic recovery and robust housing market. I’m confident the home sellers of Springfield would be appreciative.
The opinions expressed here are solely those of Fritz Pfister or identified sources, and not necessarily those of RE/MAX Professionals of Springfield or RE/MAX International.
