Fritz Pfister

As we pass the mid point of July there continues to be mixed signals within the local housing market. So far in July closed home sales down slightly, sales pending up. The median sale price is up, the average sale price is down. Year to date closed home sales down slightly, sales pending dead even with last year. The median sale price is up, the average sale price is down.

The number of homes for sale is down significantly, the fewest since 2005. The number of closed home sales is down a little over 6% to the fewest for this time of year since 2000. So the inventory of homes for sale is at a four year low while the number of closed home sales is at a nine year low. This all signals we may be reaching the bottom, however there continues to be dangerous economic signs on the horizon.

Although a budget was passed at the state there was the announcement that there are going to be twelve furlough days for all employees, and twenty six hundred state workers will be laid off. How many in our market area is not known. The only good news was the passage of a capital plan which will create some temporary jobs, but it will take some time to get those projects up and running.

On the federal level the Obama administration is pushing hard for health care reform with the goal of lowering health care costs and insuring all Americans. The head of the CBO announced at congressional hearings this week that plans put forth by the house and senate would not accomplish those goals, and would actually increase the governments liability for health care payments, and at a cost of over one point two trillion dollars.

President Obama said yesterday that the health care plan can not add to the deficit. The house proposal passed by the ways and means committee will raise the one point two trillion dollars by implementing a surcharge tax of 5.4% on the wealthiest 1.2% of tax payers, and cut medicare spending by 10% or by a half trillion dollars.

This presents a couple of major problems. Seniors will have their medicare services cut. The surcharge upon the quote wealthy translates into a tax on small business, the segment of the private market that generates over 80% of new jobs annually. The tax burden in the top tax bracket under this plan will increase the federal and state income taxes to over 50% of incomes earned in over 39 states. The majority of small businesses are sub chapter ’s’ corporations who pay income tax on their personal returns not corporate. This will probably result in sizable layoffs by small businesses.

Additional trouble was found in the bill which states that no private insurance company can issue any new policy after the first day of the year this bill is enacted. You get to keep your current insurance but if there are any changes to the policy, you change jobs, or for any other reason you would be required to purchase the government insurance.

Private insurance companies would have to survive off of existing policies in place, business growth would be outlawed. The Lewin Group a nonpartisan think tank estimates the cost of the government plan to be 30% to 40% below private sector costs which will result in companies eliminating employer paid insurance benefits for an estimated one hundred and twenty million people, leaving only fifty seven million privately insured. This will cause private insurance companies to fail, adding tens of thousands of their employees to the unemployment lines.

Ultimately the government option would be the only choice, and the only way health costs could be controlled would be through the rationing of care through the health board bureaucracy established in the stimulus plan. So according to the CBO not only will health care costs increase, the quality and and availability of health care would be diminished. Do we need health care reform? Yes. Do we need it now during a recession? No. Do we ever need a government takeover of the health care system? Not if it is going to cost more for inferior care.

At a time of recession in my opinion it doesn’t make any economic sense, as with cap and trade, to be adding taxes, driving up the cost of living, and eliminating industries which cause unemployment to climb, and federal revenues to decline. Would anyone in government with an ounce of common sense please step forward to stop these unnecessary or ill advised legislative initiatives, that risk extending and deepening this recession?

Last week it was reported there is a forty month supply of upper bracket homes on the market nationwide, locally only an eighteen month supply. With the president restricting tax deductions on the wealthy for mortgage interest deductions, state income tax deductions, charitable contribution deductions, will increase their income tax from 35% to 39.6% next year, and now will add a 5.4% surcharge to pay for the health insurance of others, please tell me where the buyers of those expensive homes will come from? What will happen to the prices of these homes?

Even without these well intentioned bills that create the opposite results intended, the economy remains at great risk for hyper inflation and rising interest rates due to the eleven trillion dollars spent by our government since last labor day to help fix the economy. Money we have either borrowed or printed. The president’s chief economic adviser Lawrence Summers said yesterday that we have averted catastrophe and have pulled back quite a distance from the precipice. In my opinion we have pulled back from the edge of the cliff, however cap and trade, universal health care, higher taxes, higher cost of living, higher unemployment, and deficit spending are only fueling a supercharged run back at the cliff!

My apologies for being redundant, but this is your window of opportunity to buy or sell a home while we still have historically low interest rates, and enough people working to give us demand at least at the levels we had in 2000. I may be wrong, but nothing in history indicates otherwise. Secretary of Treasury Henry Morganthau under FDR said quote; “After eight years we have spent more money than ever, and it does not work. We are right where we started, and have a load of debt to boot.” I wonder what old Henry would think about the spending of today?

Here’s a quote for you to ponder; “An economy hampered by restrictive taxes will never produce enough revenue to balance our budget, just as it will never produce enough jobs, or enough profits.” Who said that? John F. Kennedy.

Or ponder this common sense quote; “A country trying to tax itself to prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket trying to lift himself up by the handle.” Who said that? Winston Churchill. I believe both these men infinitely wiser than our leaders today.

With the policies of our government implemented or proposed today, if you want to buy or sell a home, you had better act while the window of opportunity remains open.

In fact if you want to take action while opportunity is knocking, it would be an honor to be of service. Over 80% of our listings have sold compared to the market’s 38%. While the market averages 95% of the asking price we average 2% more. While the market averages 94 days on the market to a sale, we average 63. The proofs in the pudding. Call us at 652-7653. The market doesn’t scare me. Our government scares me and I am fearless!

The opinions expressed are solely those of Fritz Pfister, and not RE/MAX Professionals of Springfield or RE/MAX International.