Fritz Pfister

Are you thinking about selling your home? What’s your ‘have to’ factor? By this I mean are you selling out of having to, due to a job transfer, loss of job, divorce, or some other reason that mandates you have to sell? Or are you just wanting to sell your home as a matter of convenience in order to take advantage of historically low interest rates? In other words you simply have the bug to move, but don’t have to?

When you have to, you have to, it doesn’t matter what time of year it is, it doesn’t matter whether the economy is good or bad. When you have to sell your home, you have to sell your home, plain and simple. What about when you don’t have to, you just want to? Should you consider current economic conditions? Time of year? Interest rates, or how much you think the market will pay for your home? Consider the following and decide.

In 2008 it is well known the local housing market experienced a record number of homes that were listed for sale, while simultaneously experiencing a 13.5% decline in the number of homes that sold, for the first significant decline in our market since 1994. An unusual circumstance for a historically steady housing market that we have grown accustomed to here in Springfield Illinois.

Along comes 2009, with some grave economic times creating a lot of uncertainty, an unusual commodity for our market. Due to the faltering national economy, rapidly rising unemployment rates, and meltdown in the financial markets; the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to record lows. Mortgage interest rates followed and breathed life into real estate markets that were flat on their backs across the nation.

Then the government passed a Stimulus bill of $787 billion which included an up to $8,000 tax credit for first time home buyers. If record low interest rates were the CPR that breathed life back into the housing market, the tax credit has turned out to be the defibrillator that allowed the the market to get back on its feet. There’s one small problem; the defibrillator is scheduled to be taken away soon. The tax credit expires December 1. How will the market perform after the defibrillator is removed?

That’s one question, however there is another important question; where will demand for housing come from in the upcoming months? I have stated here for months now, that jobs will be the key to demand. Illinois lost 19,000 jobs in August, however the unemployment rate fell to 10%. How can that be? The number of people who have exhausted their benefits are no longer being counted.

The National Department of Labor estimates that if you count people that used to have full time jobs, who are working part time jobs, and those who have given up looking for a job; the national unemployment rate jumps from the reported 9.7% to 16.8%. Not a rosy picture. Where’s the job creation that will fuel demand for housing sales?

The first five months of this year the number of home sales was down nearly 10% from a weak 2008, however has recovered, and is only down 2% year to date. Hundreds of home sellers can thank the tax credit and interest rates. Home sales have increased every month since June, but will that continue?

Two trends to watch in the local housing market; the number of homes being listed for sale, and the number of listings going under contract. After both moved favorably in the sellers direction over the summer, that may be coming to an end. Over the past several weeks the number of people listing their homes for sale is on the rise. The number of home listings going under contract this week fell below 100 for the first time since the first week of July. Are we running out of qualified, employed home buyers?

For you who have gotten the bug to sell your home, but don’t have to, here is what those home sellers that have to sell will be contending with between now and the end of March 2010. You decide if you want to join them in the hunt for a home buyer.

The Springfield housing market has always been seasonal. Typically about 60% of home sales occur in the spring and summer, leaving around 40% for the fall and winter months. Here’s what you can look forward to as we approach Halloween.

The five years, 2004 through 2008, during the fourth quarter there were an average of 833 homes sold. In the first quarter, 2005 through 2009, an average of 768 homes sold. That’s a five year average of 1601 home sales for the six months of fall and winter. There’s 1674 homes listed for sale today, and there have been an average of 2664 new listings added to the inventory over the fall and winter the past five years.

In other words; if we have in fact hit bottom, have leveled off, and are back to a normal market; 1601 homes will sell from 4338 that will be for sale. That means about 37% of home sellers will succeed. Another factor to consider, three of the five years used for the average, were the three best years on record for home sales in our housing market, ever.

Now you who have the bug that don’t have to sell your home, can decide whether you want to. For you who have to sell, Halloween isn’t the only thing that may scare you in October. The prospect of not selling until after March just might.

How do you become one of the 37% that succeeds? Hire an agent and company with experience, a provable record for selling homes, and follow their advice. Homes sell every month of the year. There’s just fewer sales this time of year. Can you afford to wait?

Make it a great week from Fritz and Kristie Pfister and The Pfister Success Team Inc. from RE/MAX Professionals of Springfield. Whether you have to or just want to, give us a call at 652-7653, nobody has helped more home sellers get sold this decade. In fact, 34% more!

The opinions expressed here are solely those of Fritz Pfister, and not those of RE/MAX Professionals of Springfield, or RE/MAX International.